War-Driven Inflation Is Rising — But the Real Shift Is Liquidity Structure
🔍 The News Is Simple — But the Implication Is Not After the Iran conflict, oil prices surged. As a result, inflation expectations moved higher. Korea 10Y Breakeven Inflation: 2.76% Policy Rate: 2.50% 👉 Inflation expectations are above interest rates United States 10Y Breakeven Inflation: ~2.44% Federal Funds Rate: ~3.75% 👉 Interest rates are still above inflation expectations At first glance, this looks like a typical inflation story. But it is not. 👉 This is not about prices. 👉 This is about how money moves. ❓ The Real Question When war breaks out, 👉 How does liquidity structure change? 🧩 1. Before the Shock Under normal conditions, global finance works like this: Local Currency → USD → Cross-border Payment → Bank Settlement USD-centric Bank account-based Slow settlement Multiple intermediaries 👉 This system works because time and cost are tolerable. ⚠️ 2. When War Hits War → Oil prices surge For import-dependent economies like Korea: More USD demand Currency depreciat...